I Feel Good

by Stuart Shapiro

Democrats have a lot of reasons to feel good this morning.  First the debate “snap polls:”

The CBS insta-poll gives the win to Obama, 37%-30%. CNN’s “scientific” poll gives it to Obama, 46%-39%. A Battleground poll of swing states gives Obama a bigger win, 53%-38%. And an online poll by Google Consumer Surveys gave Obama his biggest win of all, 48%-31%.

And that CNN poll likely understates the win:

The sample of debate watchers was EIGHT points more Republican than the general public, per CNN polling. So even this heavily GOP group gave the victory to Obama.

Finally and most importantly, time is (finally) running out.  The third debate is the least likely one to move the polls since it is about foreign policy and both candidates are likely to make sure they don’t make the mistakes of the first two debates.  President Obama will get a bounce over the next week that will put him up 2-3 points and then regress to a 1-2 point lead.  Which is where most experts predicted the race would end up.  Romney is almost out of time.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.