Does Santorum Have A Chance?
It has been a week since Senator Santorum shocked the political world (and me) with a trifecta of victories. Now he is leading Governor Romney in national polls. He still has two problems though. His tendency to open his mouth is one. The other one is the Romney campaign is not going away and Santorum is ill prepared for a national campaign.
Here are some things to keep in mind when assessing Rick Santorum’s chances of beating Mitt Romney. He has no pollster, no campaign headquarters, and no paid advance staff. He’s currently getting outspent on television in Michigan by a ratio of 29-1.
You know the part of the campaign ad where the candidate identifies himself and says he approves this message? The completely ubiquitous feature of modern political advertising? Santorum’s new ad seems to have forgotten it.
He also failed to get his name on the ballot in such states as Virginia and Indiana. Perhaps you have heard of them.
Look, I’d like to see a Santorum nomination and the resulting rout by President Obama as much as the next progressive (Silver has Obama up to a 60% chance vs. Romney and a 77% chance against Santorum and I think his probabilities are low), but even if Santorum is the Tim Tebow of this race, remember what happened to Tebow in his last game.
Copyright 2012 Liberaland
By: Stuart Shapiro
Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.
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