Predictions For New Hampshire (Or The Races For Second And Fourth)

by Stuart Shapiro

The New Hampshire primary comes bereft of much of the drama that surrounded the Iowa caucuses.  Governor Romney is nearly a lock to win (Nate Silver’s model gives him a 98% chance). Governor Perry has abandoned the state and will come in sixth (his performance after this depends on Republicans telling him where the next debate is).  That leaves Rep. Paul and Gov. Huntsman to race for second and Sen. Santorum and Speaker Gingrich to race for fourth.  Still, after picking Paul to win the Iowa Caucuses last week, I could use an easy week.

• Romney 34 % Paul 21% Huntsman 20% Gingrich 12% Santorum 9% Perry 4%.
• Romney claims the day is a big win.  Gingrich says it is a big loss for Romney because he didn’t reach Gingrich’s made up threshold of 40%. The truth is that the day is not terribly consequential.
• No one drops out but next week South Carolina will claim two victims.

If you think the campaign has been nasty so far, it is nothing compared to what the next ten days will bring.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.