What If Next Year Is A Complete Reversal?

by Stuart Shapiro

While I remain convinced that President Obama will win re-election and relatively sure that Republicans will retain control of the House, it is possible that something that has never happened before will occur.  We could have both branches of government switch parties in the opposite direction.  Polling on Congress highlights the possibility.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found voters support a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate in their district by eight points (48 percent to 40 percent). Another new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a Republican-controlled Congress by four points (45 percent to 41 percent).

In difficult times, voters take it out on incumbents regardless of party.  While they remain the favorites to retain their jobs, President Obama and Speaker Boehner should both be concerned.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.