Gubernatorial Update — More Bad News

by Stuart Shapiro

Well, things could be worse; at least Blagojevich isn’t running.  That said, he is probably costing the Democrats a seat in Illinois.  Nate Silver’s first gubernatorial model has the GOP winning 30 seats, up from their current 23.

Republicans are on track to control approximately 30 governor seats after the Nov. 2 election, according to the FiveThirtyEight gubernatorial forecasting model. And they are likely to do particularly well in the swing states of the Midwest.

Such an outcome would reverse the current state of the nation’s governors’ mansions, which are now held by 26 Democrats, 23 Republicans and 1 independent.

When I commented on Silver’s model for the Senate, I feared he was overly pessimistic because of the belief that the crazies like Buck and Angle will lose votes as the public gets to know them.  However, the GOP crop of candidates for governor contains far fewer right-wing ideologues.  As I look at the list of races and candidates, it is very easy for me to envision major GOP pickups.  And that bodes badly for redistricting in the next legislative session.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.