The Fear Election?
At TNR Alice Robb summarizes experimental studies and research conducted by Professor John Hibbing of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln that shows people move to the right ideologically when they are confronted by images that bring to mind their own mortality — a liberal person becomes less liberal, and a conservative person becomes more conservative.
That doesn’t bode well for Democrats in the November 2014 election. It’s why Peter Beinart predicted in The Atlantic last month that the “Security Moms” would again be an important constituency in the November elections — an important Republican constituency.
Two issues dominating the midterms clearly fall into the fear-of-mortality category: Ebola and ISIS. And though experts tell us we won’t catch Ebola at the movies and that ISIS hardly jeopardizes the national security of the United States in any meaningful way, people don’t listen to experts. This is especially true among conservatives, who tend to disregard expert opinion when it contradicts what they already believe — just look at the left-right difference of opinion on climate change.
There’s a great deal of social- and cognitive-psychological research that shows people routinely overestimate their own ability to understand things (best known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect) and that people systematically overestimate the extent to which their personal beliefs match those of the wider population (the false-consensus bias). For example, when an extreme right politician like Texas Rep. Louis Gohmert claims to speak for “Americans,” he’s demonstrating false-consensus bias. Because he thinks of himself as a “typical” American, he assumes his thoughts are typical of all Americans’ thoughts.
Conservatives systematically disregard expertise when that expertise challenges their deeply held beliefs — because, as the comedian Rob Corddry famously put it, facts have a well-known liberal bias. Right-wing information sources are more trusted than mere “experts” simply because they’re right-wing. This is the “tribal effect.” As Paul Krugman wrote in April, the tribal effect helps explain why Obamacare is still a “failure,” why Benghazi is still a “conspiracy,” and why climate change is still a “hoax.”
In electoral terms this means the empirical reality of ISIS and Ebola is far less important than the subjective reality. What experts say is far less important than what people feel.
The subjective reality of ISIS and Ebola is this: people are scared. And since people overestimate their own ability to understand complex phenomena, they’re increasingly convinced they have a darn good reason for being scared.
POLITICO reports a survey taken last week of likely voters in competitive House and Senate races that paints a dim picture for Democrats for just that reason.
In it, 84% of respondents felt ISIS is a “serious” threat to the U.S., half of whom characterized it as a “very serious” threat. As the BBC’s diplomatic and defense editor Mark Urban writes in a very good summary of the lessons of recent operations against ISIS, coalition operations against ISIS have not produced any decisive effects. In electoral terms, since we don’t appear to be “winning,” we must be “losing.” And if we’re “losing,” it must be because Obama is “failing.”
That’s consistent with a New York Times/CBS News poll that showed a majority of respondents — and a wide majority of Republicans — feel Obama is not being “tough enough” against ISIS. More worrying for Democrats, a majority of respondents believe Republicans “do better” on national security issues than Democrats — a return to the foreign affairs “issue ownership” by the GOP that defined politics throughout the Reagan-Bush-Clinton years.
Likewise, the POLITICO survey found only 22% of respondents had “a lot” of confidence that the government was doing enough to combat Ebola.
The POLITICO survey has some important weaknesses. Only 840 respondents participated, which means the margin of error is higher than it ought to be. It was an online poll, which induces sampling bias. But the findings are not inconsistent with other surveys.
The good news in the survey is that majorities of both Democrats and Republicans expressed “confidence” that the Centers for Disease Control, their state health authorities, and local health care systems can cope with Ebola.
But the bad news is that Republicans surveyed were almost twice as likely than Democrats to say they do not have confidence in the government’s ability to combat Ebola — and all else being equal Republicans are more likely to vote in November than Democrats.
And the worse news is a CBS News poll showing a steep decline in Americans’ confidence in the CDC taken a week after the Kaiser poll closed, which suggests eroding confidence in the government’s ability to cope with the outbreak.
That tracks with a Washington Post/ABC News poll also taken after the Kaiser survey, in which 61% of respondents stated they do not believe Obama “has a clear plan” for coping with current challenges like ISIS and Ebola; 71% are worried there will be another major terrorist attack in the US; a narrow majority disapprove of Obama’s handling of Ebola; and nearly 70% feel the country is “on the wrong track.”
That’s a recipe for fear. It’s a recipe for an election dominated by fear. And fear makes people more conservative.
Click here for reuse options!Copyright 2014 Liberaland
By: Russ Burgos
Interested in foreign affairs, global conflict, and political narratives and discourses
45 responses to The Fear Election?
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Obewon October 20th, 2014 at 12:54
There isn’t a single untreated U.S. Ebola case today. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29590832 USA & NATO’s 40 country coalition including the Arab League’s UAE, etc are pummeling ISIS daily at the invitation of Iraq,
Meanwhile Irrational fearmongering delivered FNC’s worst May, 2014 to May, 2013 ratings in 13 years (2001) because GOP TV’s dead viewers & voters aren’t being replaced by new GOParanoia viewers, or voters. “Ebola and ISIS”-is the only thing repubs have to run on because 68% of Americans with 69% of voters WaPo/ABC polled know today’s ‘GOP is out of touch with reality.’ http://www.politicususa.com/2014/03/04/69-registered-voters-republican-party-touch.html
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 15:11
here’s some more fear…
brian resnick, national review, writes “21 days not long enough for quarantine”…that “even after 30 days, there is a 5% chance of transmission”…
he just said this on “the cycle”, on MSNBC
oh, goodie…
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 15:13
and, is anybody else sort of pissed at nurse #2, the one who traveled to Ohio, after she cared for Mr. Duncan? and, wtf with the cruise passenger? are these people so arrogant, or foolish, or what?
rg9rts October 20th, 2014 at 15:26
What a moron…I wouldn’t let that bunch in Texas near my cat.. Hollywood couldn’t have come up with such a comedy of errors to spread a major pathogen than these idiots did!
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 15:33
and, just a side-note, and a pissy-chick thing to say…i wish the media would stop using the high school glamour shot of the “traveling to ohio, because i’m getting married, and i’m more important” nurse, and use the more current pic, where she has short hair, weighs more, and is in her scrubs–it looks like it’s her work i.d.
talk about a fucking “bride-zilla”, right? “it’s more important i get to plan my wedding in ohio, than chill while i’m taking care of an EBOLA patient”…
my god…and this cruise-taker…i can’t even begin about that one…
rg9rts October 20th, 2014 at 15:47
You want reality media??? LOL
StoneyCurtisll October 20th, 2014 at 19:35
In all fairness…:)
The “cruise ship” person doesn’t have Ebola..(blood test revealed)
And Mr. Duncan’s family members have been cleared of possible infection after the 21 day incubation period has passed..
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/dallas-ebola-watch-clears-group-quarantined/story?id=26316061
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 19:48
i’m aware of that–i said it was highly irresponsible for a person who has come in contact with an infected patient to decide the rules don’t apply because they bought a ticket to a cruise…screw that…it was a wrong-headed decision that could have put a thousand people at risk…it was a foolish thing to do, just like flying to Ohio was, for nurse #2…
healthcare workers must adhere to the strictest standard–if that is too difficult, get out of healthcare–it’s part of it…
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 19:52
and–didja see where there is still a 5% occurence of infection after—AFTER—day 21?
that freaked me…wtf? we’ve been told, over and over…21 days, 21 days…now, not so much??? what?
StoneyCurtisll October 20th, 2014 at 21:35
I saw that was a story in National Review..
5% is extremely low..
And by the 22nd or 23rd day the chance is reduced to 0%..
No one has ever passed that period of time after being exposed to the virus and being infected…
“we have nothing to fear but fear it’s self”..
Or the media hysteria that surrounds us…:)
Tammy Minton Haley October 24th, 2014 at 17:13
now, we got one in nyc…i think, even if it’s just for the “optics”, just to make us feel better–we might should introduce some mandatory quarantine for certain travelers and healthcare workers…
i’m not a’feared of getting ebola–not many people regularly pee, poop, bleed, or vomit on me… :)
i’m not in healthcare, though…
and, it will just make people feel better…
Obewon October 20th, 2014 at 12:54
There isn’t a single untreated U.S. Ebola case today http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29590832 USA & NATO’s 40 country coalition including the Arab League’s UAE, etc are pummeling ISIS daily at the invitation of Iraq,
Meanwhile Irrational fearmongering delivered FNC’s worst May, 2014 to May, 2013 ratings in 13 years (2001) because GOP TV’s dead viewers & voters aren’t being replaced by new GOParanoia viewers, or voters. “Ebola and ISIS”-is the only thing repubs have to run on because 68% of Americans and 69% of voters polled know today’s ‘GOP is out of touch with reality.’ http://www.politicususa.com/2014/03/04/69-registered-voters-republican-party-touch.html WaPo/ABC.
“Conservatives Big on Fear, Brain Study Finds:-Psychology Today because many Globally repeated peer-reviewed studies confirm via MRI scans: Conservatives have larger ‘fear center “Amygdalas”’ in brain, at the expense of tinier hope, optimism and courage “anterior cingulate.” http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/12/conservatives-fear-center-brain/
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 15:11
here’s some more fear…
brian resnick, national review, writes “21 days not long enough for quarantine”…that “even after 30 days, there is a 5% chance of transmission”…
he just said this on “the cycle”, on MSNBC
oh, goodie…
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 15:13
and, is anybody else sort of pissed at nurse #2, the one who traveled to Ohio, after she cared for Mr. Duncan? and, wtf with the cruise passenger? are these people so arrogant, or foolish, or what?
rg9rts October 20th, 2014 at 15:26
What a moron…I wouldn’t let that bunch in Texas near my cat.. Hollywood couldn’t have come up with such a comedy of errors to spread a major pathogen than these idiots did!
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 15:33
and, just a side-note, and a pissy-chick thing to say…i wish the media would stop using the high school glamour shot of the “traveling to ohio, because i’m getting married, and i’m more important” nurse, and use the more current pic, where she has short hair, weighs more, and is in her scrubs–it looks like it’s her work i.d.
talk about a fucking “bride-zilla”, right? “it’s more important i get to plan my wedding in ohio, than chill while i’m taking care of an EBOLA patient”…
my god…and this cruise-taker…i can’t even begin about that one…
rg9rts October 20th, 2014 at 15:47
You want reality media??? LOL
StoneyCurtisll October 20th, 2014 at 19:35
In all fairness…:)
The “cruise ship” person doesn’t have Ebola..(blood test revealed)
And Mr. Duncan’s family members have been cleared of possible infection after the 21 day incubation period has passed..
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/dallas-ebola-watch-clears-group-quarantined/story?id=26316061
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 19:48
i’m aware of that–i said it was highly irresponsible for a person who has come in contact with an infected patient to decide the rules don’t apply because they bought a ticket to a cruise…screw that…it was a wrong-headed decision that could have put a thousand people at risk…it was a foolish thing to do, just like flying to Ohio was, for nurse #2…
healthcare workers must adhere to the strictest standard–if that is too difficult, get out of healthcare–it’s part of it…
Tammy Minton Haley October 20th, 2014 at 19:52
and–didja see where there is still a 5% occurence of infection after—AFTER—day 21?
that freaked me…wtf? we’ve been told, over and over…21 days, 21 days…now, not so much??? what?
StoneyCurtisll October 20th, 2014 at 21:35
I saw that was a story in National Review..
5% is extremely low..
And by the 22nd or 23rd day the chance is reduced to 0%..
No one has ever passed that period of time after being exposed to the virus and being infected…
“we have nothing to fear but fear it’s self”..
Or the media hysteria that surrounds us…:)
Tammy Minton Haley October 24th, 2014 at 17:13
now, we got one in nyc…i think, even if it’s just for the “optics”, just to make us feel better–we might should introduce some mandatory quarantine for certain travelers and healthcare workers…
i’m not a’feared of getting ebola–not many people regularly pee, poop, bleed, or vomit on me… :)
i’m not in healthcare, though…
and, it will just make people feel better…
StoneyCurtisll October 24th, 2014 at 19:15
Hey ya Tammy~!
Always a pleasure to see ya!
Sometimes what makes us feel better can actually be detrimental..
Making healthcare workers quarantine themselves for 21 days after treating Ebola victims (it sounds good) could actually hamper the response by healthcare workers..
It could slow down the response and effort to get a grip on the outbreak in West Africa. where all this shit is happening..
I dont know if you heard of not but there was another school shooting today, more kids killed here in the US by crazy kids with guns than Ebola..
Off topic..
Is Andy still infecting MMfA with his presence?
Remember when he posted the You and I were the same person?..:)
Tammy Minton Haley October 26th, 2014 at 00:13
looks like christie has a woman quarantined that doesn’t have ebola…that’s some of that slippery slope stuff you keep gently telling me about, huh? :)
did you see darrel issa, interrogating the CDC about this…why can’t the senate censure him? he is a destructive entity…i’m serious–don’t they occasionally have to run people off, like mccarthy?…
and, the beautiful model that tweeted–“…another school shooting…or, in America…Tuesday…” had so many death threats she suspended her account…nothing like “Freedom of Speech”…(for THEM, not us…ever…)
no MMfA for me in a few weeks…can’t stand it any more…
i’m well-fed and ebola-free…looking forward to my favorite, Thanksgiving!!!
StoneyCurtisll October 26th, 2014 at 15:44
Like I said Tamm..
I always like hearing from you~!
And no MMfA does feel good doesn’t it..:)
Happy to hear you are doing well (and Ebola free)..:)
Have a safe and happy Halloween~! (look out for those candies with pot in them)..
Tammy Minton Haley October 27th, 2014 at 01:57
i’m a chewy chocolate chip cookie girl, myself…but, the legislators up in Lansing are morons, so the act of making butter, or oils, or any extract-type thing is currently illegal…our marijuana law was poorly written, and easily misinterpreted…
we’ve been legal here in michigan for medical cannabis since 2008, and we are still unsettled…some counties have absolute pricks for prosecuting attorneys–read: my county–and we can’t keep a farmacy open–we have to go through a bunch of crap, with collectives, transfer stations–it’s ridiculous…while some counties have a store on every block…
i have access to some butter making chefs, so, screw’em…i still eat my cookie for bedtime…it’s better than taking an Ativan–what i’m prescribed for sleep.
we have big pharma over in kalamazoo–can’t help but wonder…?
mea_mark October 20th, 2014 at 13:19
The only problem with this is that the republicans really don’t have any solutions and would just make things worse. If you are dominated by fear and was still able to think at all rationally you would realize the democrats have the chance of finding a solution to the many problems that are causing the fear. Solutions require thinking outside the box and looking for answers. Republicans like statqus quo and want to go with what they know will get results. Problem is, we don’t necessarily know what will get results. Progressive thinking with new ideas is required to finding solutions to the problems that are generating the fear.
Pilotshark October 20th, 2014 at 14:14
Well they do have 4 powerful candidates, working for them.
Gary Gloom
Danny Doom
Freddy Fear
Peter Panic
mea_mark October 20th, 2014 at 13:19
The only problem with this is that the republicans really don’t have any solutions and would just make things worse. If you are dominated by fear and was still able to think at all rationally you would realize the democrats have the best chance of finding a solution to the many problems that are causing the fear. Solutions require thinking outside the box and looking for answers. Republicans like statqus quo and want to go with what they know will get results. Problem is, we don’t necessarily know what will get results. Progressive thinking with new ideas is required to finding solutions to the problems that are generating the fear.
Pilotshark October 20th, 2014 at 14:14
Well they do have 4 powerful candidates, working for them.
Gary Gloom
Danny Doom
Freddy Fear
Peter Panic
OldLefty October 20th, 2014 at 13:24
From The Borowitz Report;
Some Fear Ebola Outbreak Could Make Nation Turn to Science
BY ANDY BOROWITZhttp://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report
OldLefty October 20th, 2014 at 13:24
From The Borowitz Report;
Some Fear Ebola Outbreak Could Make Nation Turn to Science
BY ANDY BOROWITZhttp://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report
William October 20th, 2014 at 13:35
Ebola, Isis. Right wing wacko media scaring the rubes once again.
edmeyer_able October 20th, 2014 at 14:12
At least with ebola I’d still have my dignity.
William October 20th, 2014 at 13:35
Ebola, Isis. Right wing wacko media scaring the rubes once again.
edmeyer_able October 20th, 2014 at 14:12
At least with ebola I’d still have my dignity.
edmeyer_able October 20th, 2014 at 14:10
tl/dr…. I’m going to die there is nothing more to fear in that category. What I am afraid of is living in a country that is run by republicans.
edmeyer_able October 20th, 2014 at 14:10
tl/dr…. I’m going to die there is nothing more to fear in that category. What I am afraid of is living in a country that is run by republicans.
rg9rts October 20th, 2014 at 15:22
SOP for the gopee for years.
rg9rts October 20th, 2014 at 15:22
SOP for the gopee for years.
R J October 20th, 2014 at 17:00
Fear is a choice
R J October 20th, 2014 at 17:00
Fear is a choice
Tammy Minton Haley October 26th, 2014 at 00:13
looks like christie has a woman quarantined that doesn’t have ebola…that’s some of that slippery slope stuff you keep gently telling me about, huh? :)
did you see darrel issa, interrogating the CDC about this…why can’t the senate censure him? he is a destructive entity…i’m serious–don’t they occasionally have to run people off, like mccarthy?…
and, the beautiful model that tweeted–“…another school shooting…or, in America…Tuesday…” had so many death threats she suspended her account…nothing like “Freedom of Speech”…(for THEM, not us…ever…)
no MMfA for me in a few weeks…can’t stand it any more…
i’m well-fed and ebola-free…looking forward to my favorite, Thanksgiving!!!
StoneyCurtisll October 26th, 2014 at 15:44
Like I said Tamm..
I always like hearing from you~!
And no MMfA does feel good doesn’t it..:)
Happy to hear you are doing well (and Ebola free)..:)
Have a safe and happy Halloween~! (look out for those candies with pot in them)..
Tammy Minton Haley October 27th, 2014 at 01:57
i’m a chewy chocolate chip cookie girl, myself…but, the legislators up in Lansing are morons, so the act of making butter, or oils, or any extract-type thing is currently illegal…our marijuana law was poorly written, and easily misinterpreted…
we’ve been legal here in michigan for medical cannabis since 2008, and we are still unsettled…some counties have absolute pricks for prosecuting attorneys–read: my county–and we can’t keep a farmacy open–we have to go through a bunch of crap, with collectives, transfer stations–it’s ridiculous…while some counties have a store on every block…
i have access to some butter making chefs, so, screw’em…i still eat my cookie for bedtime…it’s better than taking an Ativan–what i’m prescribed for sleep.
we have big pharma over in kalamazoo–can’t help but wonder…?