Guess What? The Stimulus Worked
To those in the reality based community this is not news. But still, it is always good to hear it again. This time from a new study out of the Fed in San Francisco by Sylvain Leduc and Dan Wilson:
Leduc and Wilson’s finding gives support to two different claims about the stimulus bill of 2009. First is the claim that just because it did not usher in an immediate recovery does not mean that ARRA was a failure. After it took effect and the recession continued, supporters of the bill argued that it likely saved or created many jobs that would otherwise have been lost or have never existed in the first place, a position their data appears to support.
The data also seems to vindicate those who argued that the stimulus bill was simply not large enough.
“Given the large multiplier effect from infrastructure spending that past studies have documented, the additional spending on highways likely had a significantly positive effect on economic activity,” Leduc and Wilson write.
President Obama’s chief legacies (outside of Obamacare) are likely to be the things he prevented. Preventing major wars (hopefully) and economic depressions are a pretty big deal.
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Copyright 2014 Liberaland
By: Stuart Shapiro
Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.
28 responses to Guess What? The Stimulus Worked
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tiredoftea August 28th, 2014 at 00:28
Oh, sure, the San Francisco Fed!! Damn lefty commie, socialist homosexuals can’t possibly be doing an honest report!
tiredoftea August 28th, 2014 at 00:28
Oh, sure, the San Francisco Fed!! Damn lefty commie, socialist homosexuals can’t possibly be doing an honest report!
Obewon August 28th, 2014 at 00:40
Thank you for your accurate and always stimulating economic news Stuart.
The nonpartisan CBO also confirms about 7 m private jobs were stimulus created, of the Obama Admins 11 M private jobs created in 54 consecutive months of private jobs growth, by the Obama Admin and Dems 60% jobs stimulus. https://www.flickr.com/photos/speakerpelosi/13630053153/in/photostream/
John Tarter August 29th, 2014 at 22:07
Still drinking the kool-aid, hey Obe? More people have permanently left the workforce than ever in the nations history. What about that?
Obewon August 29th, 2014 at 22:13
Have you ever considered actually researching by R e a d i n g before you post previously debunked drivel?
bahlers September 2nd, 2014 at 01:09
Yet the employment to population ratio tells a different story.
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Obewon September 2nd, 2014 at 03:12
Here’s BLS actual data by month & year proving GWB’s “Great Recession record low everything peak-Top “65.8%”-Dec, 2008 and trough-Bottom “62.8%”-Dec 2013. If you went to college and took a single economics class, then you’d know the labor force is the last to recover from ANY recession -let alone GWB’s Great Recession record low everything since (R) Hoover’s 1929 Great Depression that took 10 years to fully recover to prior GDP e.g. GWB’s $12.7 T -9% Q-4-2008 GDP loosing -812,000 JOBS per month Vs U.S. Record $16.2 T +4.2% Q-2-2014 GDP Gaining +280,000 JOBS per month!
July, 2014 Labor force “(Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level” 156,023,000. “Civilian labor force participation rate 62.9%” August, 2014 = 63%:) Announced Friday.
Bob Cronos September 1st, 2014 at 21:30
“As of December, the economy had gained a net total of 3,246,000 jobs since Obama first took office, and the unemployment rate had fallen to 6.7 percent, down from 7.8 percent.
Despite the gains, more than 10 million people remained unemployed, including 3.9 million who had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. That’s an increase of nearly 1.2 million “long-term unemployed” since the start of the Obama presidency.
The average time that an unemployed person in December had been looking for work was 37 weeks, nearly double the average at the time Obama entered the White House.
Another troubling jobs statistic is the civilian labor force participation rate, which has now declined by 2.9 percentage points since Obama became president, to the lowest point since 1978.” – http://www.factcheck.org/2014/01/obamas-numbers-january-2014-update/
But hey, nice chart…
Obewon September 1st, 2014 at 22:03
You forget it’s a BLS chart and:
1. the GOP cut nearly 2 M Public Sector jobs.
2. 9.9 Million jobs have been created in the past 53 months.
3. In each of the past 6 months 200,000+ jobs were created for the first time since 1997 ‘Job growth has hit more than 200,000 each month for the past six months, the first time that mark has been reached since 1997.
4. BLS: The U.S. added 209,000 jobs in July, 2014 the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2%. Meanwhile, last month’s report was revised up to 298,000 from 288,000, and May was revised up to 229,000 from 224,000.
This Friday the Jobs report for August, 2014 will be released and will tie the all-time U.S. record of 54 consecutive months of private jobs growth under Clinton’s 40 m+ & 22.5 M net , 8 year jobs Boom!
Next in September, 2014 a new ’55 month jobs record’ will be set. Until your Boehner & Canada’s Cruz have another tantrum shutting down government again in a fit of jealous rage because G. W. “Bush worst on Jobs in U.S. History”-WSJ 1/09/2009. 1.08 M private Bush Jobs in all 8 years via 2M+ new “Public sector” jobs created by GWB! 2nd worst in U.S. history? G. H.W. Bush’s 2.5 M jobs total! See the pattern? Repubs are fiscally & economically illiterate e.g. “George W. Bush’s 12/07 to 6/09 Great Recession lost 8.9 million jobs & wiped out $17 Trillion in U.S. Assets!”
So yes it is a “nice chart..”-BLS hasn’t changed reporting since Ronnie Reagan.
bahlers September 2nd, 2014 at 01:07
You forgot to mention that the employment to population ratio is at its lowest point since early 1984. So if a greater portion of the population is out of work, how can the unemployment rate continue to drop?
Obewon September 2nd, 2014 at 02:44
You forgot to mention that working ages 18 to 65 ’employment population’ is 61% and that the percentage employed is 63% of USA’s 317 M population a 2:1 ratio. Stay in school like the record number of college students today delaying full-time entry into the U.S. labor force = 33+hours per week.
bahlers September 8th, 2014 at 16:35
Aside from the Post, where are you getting your figures on the employment population, as the Post article does not mention the figures that you mention, at least I didn’t catch them in my reading. Recent BLS graphs put the working age population 16 and over employment percentage is 59%.
Obewon August 28th, 2014 at 00:40
Thank you Stuart for your accurate and always stimulating economic news.
The nonpartisan CBO also confirms about 7 M private jobs were stimulus created, of the Obama Admins 10 M private jobs created in 54 consecutive months of private jobs growth, by the Obama Admin and the Dems 60% targeted jobs stimulus. https://www.flickr.com/photos/speakerpelosi/13630053153/in/photostream/
John Tarter August 29th, 2014 at 22:07
Still drinking the kool-aid, hey Obe? More people have permanently left the workforce than ever in the nations history. What about that?
Obewon August 29th, 2014 at 22:13
Have you ever considered actually researching before you repeat your previously debunked posts that ignore retiring baby-boomers & record U.S. College attendance delaying full-time worker-entry into the workforce? The 10 M+ private jobs created by the Obama Admin are 10-Times more than all 8 years of GWB’s 1.08 M Total private jobs created through January 20, 2009. Vs GWB’s 9 M 12/07-6/09 Great Recession jobs lost.
Here’s 5+ jobs data graphs posted February 11, 2014 http://aattp.org/debunked-five-graphs-obliterate-the-gop-lie-that-obama-is-only-creating-part-time-jobs/
1. For every new part-time job, we are creating 225 full-time jobs.
2. Next, a graph of what has happened to part time employment since March of 2010 when Obamacare was passed. Republicans claim that part-time job creation has skyrocketed because of Obamacare. Nope. Four years of data show that, too, is a GOP lie.
3. The next comparison: Part-Time jobs DECREASING as a share of the entire work force. Things just don’t look good for the GOP liars.
4. Here are part time jobs as a share of the labor force since 1980. Compared to the unemployment rate. As explained by The Atlantic.
5. And finally, let’s look at part-time jobs worked for economic versus non-economic reasons For example: people in school, raising families, or due to illness. As you can see, even this data shows that the GOP is lying, as the people working part-time for noneconomic reasons is flat, but also TRENDING DOWN. Republicans are simply lying when they criticize President Obama’s record on jobs. Help spread the world and share this article on social media forums. The GOP is good at killing jobs, not creating them.
bahlers September 2nd, 2014 at 01:09
Yet the employment to population ratio tells a different story.
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Obewon September 2nd, 2014 at 03:12
Here’s BLS actual data by month & year proving GWB’s “Great Recession record low everything peak-Top “65.8%”-Dec, 2008 and trough-Bottom “62.8%”-Dec 2013. If you went to college and took an economics class, then you know the labor force is the last to recover from ANY recession -let alone GWB’s Great Recession record low everything since (R) Hoover’s 1929 Great Depression that took 10 years to fully recover to prior GDP e.g. GWB’s $12.7 T -9% Q-4-2008 GDP loosing -812,000 JOBS per month Vs U.S. Record $16.2 T +4.2% Q-2-2014 GDP now Gaining +200K+ to 288,000 JOBS per month with one month gaining 312,000 private jobs!
July, 2014 Labor force “(Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level” 156,023,000. “Civilian labor force participation rate 62.9%” August, 2014 = 63%:) Announced Friday.
Bob Cronos September 1st, 2014 at 21:30
“As of December, the economy had gained a net total of 3,246,000 jobs since Obama first took office, and the unemployment rate had fallen to 6.7 percent, down from 7.8 percent.
Despite the gains, more than 10 million people remained unemployed, including 3.9 million who had been out of work for 27 weeks or longer. That’s an increase of nearly 1.2 million “long-term unemployed” since the start of the Obama presidency.
The average time that an unemployed person in December had been looking for work was 37 weeks, nearly double the average at the time Obama entered the White House.
Another troubling jobs statistic is the civilian labor force participation rate, which has now declined by 2.9 percentage points since Obama became president, to the lowest point since 1978.” – http://www.factcheck.org/2014/01/obamas-numbers-january-2014-update/
But hey, nice chart…
Obewon September 1st, 2014 at 22:03
You forget it’s a BLS chart and:
1. the GOP cut nearly 2 M Public Sector jobs.
2. 9.9 Million jobs have been created in the past 53 months.
3. In each of the past 6 months 200,000+ jobs were created for the first time since 1997 “Job growth has hit more than 200,000 each month for the past six months, the first time that mark has been reached since 1997.”-BLS
4. The U.S. added 209,000 jobs in July, 2014 the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2%. Meanwhile, June’s preliminary report was revised up to 298,000 from 288,000, and May’s estimate was revised up to 229,000 from 224,000.
5. This Friday the BLS Jobs report for August, 2014 will be released and will tie the all-time U.S. record of 54 consecutive months of private jobs growth under Clinton’s 40 m+ & 22.5 M net, 8 year jobs Boom!
6. Next in September, 2014 a new ’55 month jobs record’ will be set. Until your Boehner & Canada’s Cruz have another tantrum shutting down government again in a fit of jealous rage because G. W. “Bush worst on Jobs in U.S. History”-WSJ 1/09/2009. 1.08 M private Bush Jobs in all 8 years via 2M+ new “Public sector” jobs created by GWB!
7. Second worst in U.S. history? G.H.W. Bush’s 2.5 M jobs 4 year total! See the pattern? Repubs are fiscally & economically illiterate e.g. ‘George W. Bush’s 12/07 to 6/09 Great Recession lost 8.9 million jobs & wiped out $17 Trillion in U.S. Assets!’ (-812,000 jobs lost 1/2009 didn’t return to positive jobs growth until Feb, 2010-54 Months Ago:)
So yes it is a “nice chart..”-BLS hasn’t changed reporting since Reagan tripled 1980’s $800 B public debt (+187%) to create 16 M jobs.
bahlers September 2nd, 2014 at 01:07
You forgot to mention that the employment to population ratio is at its lowest point since early 1984. So if a greater portion of the population is out of work, how can the unemployment rate continue to drop?
Obewon September 2nd, 2014 at 02:44
You forgot to mention that working ages 18 to 65 ’employment population’ is 61% and that the percentage employed is 63% of US working age 16+ population a 2:1 ratio. Stay in school like the record number of college students today delaying full-time entry into the U.S. labor force = 34+hours per week.
Why haven’t you ever heard of post WW-II record-born 1944 to 1962 Baby-boomers retiring today at record rates, increasing the senior retiree percentages of population and other factors decreasing work-force such as early retirement at age 55, sabbatical hiatus, Maternity leave, stay at home moms/dads and today’s record numbers of college students delayed workforce entry, etc?
FYI>1) The aging of America. One big reason the participation rate dropped involves long-run demographic trends that have nothing to do with the current economy. Baby boomers are starting to retire en masse, which means that there are fewer eligible American workers.
Demographics have always played a big role in the rise and fall of the labor force. Between 1960 and 2000, the labor force in the United States surged from 59% to a peak of 67.3%. That was largely due to the fact that more women were entering the labor force while improvements in health and information technology allowed Americans to work more years.
But since 2000, the labor force rate has been steadily declining as the baby-boom generation has been retiring. Because of this, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago expects the labor force participation rate to be lower in 2020 than it is today, regardless of how well the economy does. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/09/06/the-incredible-shrinking-labor-force-again/
bahlers September 8th, 2014 at 16:35
Aside from the Post, where are you getting your figures on the employment population, as the Post article does not mention the figures that you mention, at least I didn’t catch them in my reading. Recent BLS graphs put the working age population 16 and over employment percentage is 59%.
OldLefty August 28th, 2014 at 06:26
“Of all the myths and falsehoods that Republicans have spread about President Obama, the most pernicious and long-lasting is that the $832 billion stimulus package did not work. Since 2009, Republican lawmakers have inextricably linked the words “failed” and “stimulus,”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/opinion/sunday/what-the-stimulus-accomplished.html?_r=0
OldLefty August 28th, 2014 at 06:26
“Of all the myths and falsehoods that Republicans have spread about President Obama, the most pernicious and long-lasting is that the $832 billion stimulus package did not work. Since 2009, Republican lawmakers have inextricably linked the words “failed” and “stimulus,”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/opinion/sunday/what-the-stimulus-accomplished.html?_r=0
John Tarter August 29th, 2014 at 22:03
Yep, it worked so well that more people than ever before are receiving some sort of government handout.
John Tarter August 29th, 2014 at 22:03
Yep, it worked so well that more people than ever before are receiving some sort of government handout.
Bob Cronos September 1st, 2014 at 21:33
Federal spending as an indicator of economic prosperity… Now THAT’S funny!
Bob Cronos September 1st, 2014 at 21:33
Federal spending as an indicator of economic prosperity… Now THAT’S funny!