Press Suddenly Discovers GOP Doesn’t Have A Midterm Lock On Senate

In terms so simple that a Beltway pundit can understand, Jonathan Weisman explains why the Democrats may gain seats in the US Senate this November:

To Representative Steve Daines, Republican of Montana, his vote this month against a 1,582-page, $1.1 trillion spending bill was at once a stand for fiscal sanity and a protest against spending cuts to rural communities, a “constructive no,” as he put it last week.

His opponents in the race for Montana’s open Senate seat quickly labeled it a vote against increased funding for the Indian Health Service, Pell Grants for low-income college students, mental health benefits for veterans and traumatic brain injury assistance for those who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as an effort to dry up the clean water supplies of rural Montanans.

The attacks on that one vote from Montana Democrats, including a possible challenger in Lt. Gov. John Walsh, highlighted a vulnerability to the Republicans’ quest for control of the Senate: They draw heavily from the unpopular House for candidates.

“They’re just trying to remind you these guys are members of a very unpopular body,” said Jennifer Duffy, the Senate analyst at Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election newsletter. “It’s something that worked well for them in 2012.”

The math is actually easy enough for the usual gang of Beltway “wise men” to understand, and it’s not as ifit’s the first time that their per(bi)ennial claim that “Republicans have a huge advantage going into this year’s Senate elections” will be dead wrong:

“It’s pretty simple,” said Ty Matsdorf, spokesman for the Senate Majority PAC, the main “super PAC” devoted to keeping the Senate in Democratic hands. “House Republicans are advancing and advocating an irresponsible, reckless agenda, and we are going to make sure voters in every one of these states know their record.”

In 2012, Republicans fielded House members or former House members in Senate contests in North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico and Arizona. Six of them lost, including Denny Rehberg in Montana, Rick Berg in North Dakota, and Todd Akin in Missouri, three races Republicans had thought were likely pickups. In contrast, five of the six House Democrats seeking a seat in the upper chamber in 2012 won.

By: dave-dr-gonzo

David Hirsch, a.k.a. Dave "Doctor" Gonzo*, is a renegade record producer, video producer, writer, reformed corporate shill, and still-registered lobbyist for non-one-percenter performing artists and musicians. He lives in a heavily fortified compound in one of Manhattan's less trendy neighborhoods.

* Hirsch is the third person to use the pseudonym, a not-so-veiled tribute to journalist and author Hunter S. Thompson, with the permission of his predecessors Gene Gaudette of American Politics Journal (currently webmaster and chief bottlewasher at Liberaland) and Stephen Meese at Smashmouth Politics.