Actual economists: Trump’s rosy forecast is baloney
Keep in mind: these are actual degreed and credentialed economists who use complex mathematics and well-established models to study and predict economic behaviors, as opposed to, say, a former “reality” TV show host:
[E]conomic analysts have said that Trump’s growth rate target of 4 percent is audacious at best and implausible at worst, especially given broader factors like an aging population. The Congressional Budget Office and Federal Reserve project annual economic growth to hover around 1.9 and 1.8 percent, respectively, for most of the coming decade.
Four percent growth would require big gains in the size of the work force and productivity, but with baby boomers retiring and no boom in productivity, “you just can’t do it, mathematically,” former Labor Secretary Robert Reich told CNBC on Tuesday.
It’s just “not in the cards,” Reich explained.
“It would defy gravity,” Diane Swonk, a veteran independent economist in Chicago, told the New York Times last month.“It’s simple math.”
Sebastian Mallaby, who serves on the Council of Foreign Relations, told CNBC on Tuesday that “the economy is already operating at near potential.”
Economic growth is ultimately driven by two factors: population growth and technological innovation — and there’s only so much the government can do to affect either factor. Dale Jorgenson, a Harvard economics professor whose most recent forecasts show an economy growing by 1.8 percent annually over the next decade, explained to the Journal that workforce skills aren’t advancing. At the same time, few meaningful technological innovations have spurred job growth — with many advances leaving whole industries obsolete.
“This idea that you can boost [GDP growth] into a nirvana stratosphere … it’s not gonna happen,” Mallaby said. “If we think it’s gonna happen, we’ll make policy errors.”
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Copyright 2017 Liberaland
By: dave-dr-gonzo
David Hirsch, a.k.a. Dave "Doctor" Gonzo*, is a renegade record producer, video producer, writer, reformed corporate shill, and still-registered lobbyist for non-one-percenter performing artists and musicians. He lives in a heavily fortified compound in one of Manhattan's less trendy neighborhoods.
* Hirsch is the third person to use the pseudonym, a not-so-veiled tribute to journalist and author Hunter S. Thompson, with the permission of his predecessors Gene Gaudette of American Politics Journal (currently webmaster and chief bottlewasher at Liberaland) and Stephen Meese at Smashmouth Politics.
8 responses to Actual economists: Trump’s rosy forecast is baloney
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William February 23rd, 2017 at 10:56
His entire world is whatever fantasies his brain can cultivate, and the lies perpetuated by his yes- https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fe24fd368fb975d166499ee00d2f573df0768dc9abfafbf3bda6726dcbc756d6.jpg men and lackeys.
wpadon February 23rd, 2017 at 13:13
The only orgasm any of the Pu$$y Grabber’s wives ever got was self induced.
granpa.usthai February 24th, 2017 at 06:43
not too sure about that. I mean, I could certainly understand how they would be tantalized by the fantasies of being a Russian prostitute in a hotel room with his big fat orange wrinkled up ass….
especially if they fancied it as retribution for the ABUSE they have to accept to be related to his money by law.
granpa.usthai February 24th, 2017 at 06:40
words of the orange FAKE leader, LIAR trump, who LOST the popular election to Lady Clinton by 3,000,000 votes. That’s more than the population of 19 states, DC, or 4 US Territories.
LADY CLINTON WAS ELECTED BY THE PEOPLE.
LIAR trump was SELECTED by the republican electoral.
naturally, LIAR trump will be looking out for the republican electoral,
just as LADY Clinton would have been looking out for the people.
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Mike February 23rd, 2017 at 12:41
Without unrealistic economic predictions Trump’s tax plan is exposed for the 800lb gorilla it it. his plan to sacrifice the environment for prosperity becomes moot, and his immigration policy is shown to worsen the shrinking workforce. Insurance becomes affordable for all but the rich affecting the stability of the healthcare market itself.
William February 23rd, 2017 at 13:53
It doesn’t really matter to his base. He could be standing in a septic tank and tell his supporters it’s a spa, and they’d believe him. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/452f7107aa8122cdd3ba9467518facf691e10ea794072281ca3ab780ed7ee491.jpg
granpa.usthai February 24th, 2017 at 06:46
tough days ahead for his white racist deplorables for sure.
unfortunately…..
for those of US who supported Lady Clinton also.