Biggest Threat To Humanity? Humanity.
Natural risks are far smaller than human-caused risks. The typical mammalian species lasts for a few million years, which means that extinction risk is on the order of one in a million per year. Just looking at nuclear war, where we have had at least one close call in 69 years (the Cuban Missile Crisis) gives a risk of many times higher. Of course, nuclear war might not be 100% extinction causing, but even if we agree it has just 10% or 1% chance, it is still way above the natural extinction rate.
Nuclear war is still the biggest direct threat, but I expect biotechnology-related threats to increase in the near future (cheap DNA synthesis, big databases of pathogens, at least some crazies and misanthropes). Further along the line nanotechnology (not grey goo, but “smart poisons” and superfast arms races) and artificial intelligence might be really risky.
And what do we do about it? Not much:
The reason we under-invest in countering them is because reducing existential risk is an inter-generational public good. Humans are bad at accounting for the welfare of future generations.
In some cases, such as possible existential risks from artificial intelligence, the underinvestment problem is compounded by people failing to take the risks seriously at all. In other cases, like biotechnology, people confuse risk with likelihood. Extremely unlikely events are still worth studying and preventing, simply because the stakes are so high.
Happy Tuesday!
Click here for reuse options!Copyright 2014 Liberaland
By: Stuart Shapiro
Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.
6 responses to Biggest Threat To Humanity? Humanity.
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Dwendt44 May 14th, 2014 at 00:15
We are our own worst enemy.
Dwendt44 May 14th, 2014 at 00:15
We are our own worst enemy.
AnthonyLook May 14th, 2014 at 00:18
The biggest threat to humanity exists here in America; it is all the anti science Republicans, their religious arm of extremist fascist theocratic fake Christians, Fox Propaganda network and all the lie loving tea party birther RACISTS.
AnthonyLook May 14th, 2014 at 00:18
The biggest threat to humanity exists here in America; it is all the anti science Republicans, their religious arm of extremist fascist theocratic fake Christians, Fox Propaganda network and all the lie loving tea party birther RACISTS.
fahvel May 14th, 2014 at 03:38
but it’s just nature – one aberrant species that pops up, does its thing and then in less than a million years, whoosh – no more self destroying genocidal homo sapiens – who’s gonna miss them?????
fahvel May 14th, 2014 at 03:38
but it’s just nature – one aberrant species that pops up, does its thing and then in less than a million years, whoosh – no more self destroying genocidal homo sapiens – who’s gonna miss them?????