Don’t Spike The Football Yet, Liberals!
Even if Ted Cruz goes true dead-ender*, pushing a Senate vote past the debt ceiling deadline, it looks to be a safe bet Treasury will get the funding before October 23rd Social Security checks go out.
Most importantly, Speaker Boehner has shown unequivocally that he will not risk default. For all his posturing about the great leverage the debt ceiling gave Republicans, it was never going to happen. And that’s to his credit, despite the many, many things which aren’t.
Arguably, the best part of this ‘victory’ for Democrats is that they stayed tough and united; they didn’t cave to blackmail and did exactly what we asked of them. They deserve a ‘Bravo!’
Still, questions linger. Did conservatives really learn a lesson about hostage-taking? Not so much. The chatter seems to fall into one of two opinions: 1) Obamacare was the wrong thing to try this with, a different demand would have worked; or 2) this defeat happened because Boehner and McConnell are spineless wimps with no will to fight… Listen closely: that shrill keening you hear is the cry of Erick Erickson demanding more primaries against those who’ve caved and chosen to reopen government and avoid default. (Those bastards!)
A larger question is: now what? Don’t we just have these same deadlines kicked down the road a few months? Won’t they just try it again? That’s certainly possible, and with the state of today’s GOP, I wouldn’t put anything past them. But again, Boehner put the lie to the debt ceiling. While many in his caucus may have been willing to break the ceiling, (either through a misguided belief that default could never happen, or through a pathological desire to hurt Obama, no matter the cost), as I said weeks ago, it was always a bluff.
The GOP has also taken a huge hit to an already faltering approval rating. While that may be of little concern to tea party brigands in deep-red districts, the GOP holds the House today only because gerrymandering created more districts just red enough to be winnable. Louie Gohmert has the luxury of being bat-sh*t crazy because he hails from a R+21 district. Jon Runyan, on the other hand, sits less comfortably on an R+2. That matters. A lot. If Republicans feel impotent controlling only one house of Congress, imagine how they’ll feel when they’ve lost even that. To not lose it, they need to hold those swingy red districts.
The upshot is that I don’t see another shutdown and/or debt ceiling fight coming any time soon. (Again, with today’s GOP, I’ll hedge my bets: this is not a 100% lock.) More to the point, we’re actually going to budget conference! Because you know how that became a big demand of Republicans during the showdown, even though they pointedly declined conference for months beforehand so they could get their precious shutdown… (But I digress.) This means an attempt at bipartisan negotiations over an actual budget. And this, dear readers, is where the danger really lies.
There are two great problems going into budget talks, and they both date back to 2011. The first problem is that Republicans can very reasonably consider President Obama’s 2011 proposals as a starting point for negotiations. I don’t mean to ruffle the feathers of any Obama fans or believers in 11-dimensional chess, but Obama’s 2011 offers were truly awful from a progressive policy perspective.
Even if we buy the idea that entitlements are desperately in need of reform (which is not the case), there are far better solutions than slashing benefits and raising eligibility ages. Be prepared: these are things they will be considering; and unless Democrats hear forcefully from their own base, these disastrous ideas may very well become policy. It would be amazing indeed to see a massive roll-back of New Deal protections with Democrats in control of both the Senate and White House.
The second problem is sequestration. The continuing resolution being agreed to as I type locks in sequester levels until Jan. 15. This means Democrats will have voted yet again for sequester levels. There is also the fact that the next round of sequester cuts hit on Jan. 15. Democrats may have more leverage this time, because this sequester will hit the Pentagon rather than non-defense programs. Remember, this is supposedly a poison pill for Republicans — not that that stopped the sequester from happening in the first place.
At any rate, the pain of sequester cuts are probably not going away entirely, even in the best case scenario. I would dearly love to be surprised, but I don’t see any way they get to an agreement that does away with the Budget Control Act and the sequester. This means we’re likely to be living with sequester-level spending levels indefinitely. Best case: Democrats are able to use the threat of across-the-board defense cuts to craft a budget with more finesse and marginally less pain. Worse: they come to no agreement and the sequester lives on. Worst case: a ‘grand bargain’ type deal unfolds (although no one wants to use that term anymore) and entitlements take the brunt of cuts in the name of ‘bipartisan cooperation.’
Hang on to your hats, folks.
* Update: I’m now told Ted Cruz has decided he will not be blocking the Senate vote.
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By: Sandi Behrns
Sandi Behrns is a noted policy nerd, new media & web developer, and consultant to progressive organizations and campaigns. She is a senior contributor to Liberaland, and the Executive Editor of Progressive Congress News.