So Where Is This Budget Thing Headed?

10 days. That’s how much time we have remaining to get a budget passed through two houses of Congress and signed by the President. Failing that, we face a U.S. government shutdown. To make matters worse, the debt ceiling limit should hit within another couple weeks, raising the specter of default. So what do our prospects look like? None too good.

There are currently no talks scheduled for Congressional budget negotiations; the GOP-controlled House just passed a continuing resolution dependent on the complete defunding of Obamacare; Ted Cruz is making wimpy noises in the Senate about trying to push that through; the President has categorically stated his intent to veto such legislation in the unlikely event it did make it to his desk; and the brilliant folks at GOP public relations seem to think they’ll be able to hang a shutdown around the President’s neck.

Phew — that’s what Jon Stewart would call a real clusterf*ck. But what should informed observers be expecting as a likely outcome?

There are some who see this all leading up to another shot for Obama to get his coveted, legacy-making “Grand Bargain.” While Republicans would doubtless be happy to declare victory for “forcing” Obama into unpopular cuts to Social Security and Medicare, the other half of the bargain — revenue increases — is a non-starter with the caucus. It’s slightly possible that Obama would accept those cuts with promises of an imminent move on tax reform; but again, Republican insistence that tax reform be revenue-neutral kills the deal. I rate the likelihood of a Grand Bargain: Low.

Is it possible that Democrats and President Obama will acquiesce and defund or significantly alter Obamacare? Ha ha, just kidding — let’s move on to things that are actually possible. Likelihood rating: Not Bloody Likely.

The truth of the matter is that Speaker Boehner is placating the extremists in his party with these votes. While there are many House Republicans who see a government shutdown as neutral to both parties, this is not a chance I think Boehner is willing to take. The most likely scenario is one in which a deal is cobbled together with just enough sweetener to bring along a handful of House Republicans to join the majority of the Democratic caucus in passing a spending bill. The most likely sweetener? Extending sequestration budget levels through fiscal 2014.

Don’t get me wrong: this is a terrible prospect. Terrible for the economy as a whole; terrible for children and the elderly; terrible for scientific research, education, the FBI, infrastructure, military families, the courts, housing, hospitals, cancer patients, government watchdogs,  immigration enforcement, and much, much more… And yet here we are, on the brink of watching Democrats vote one more time to endorse this draconian process. After all, they will reason, it’s the least bad solution, given Republican intransigence.

And so we face the very real prospect that the poison pill that was supposed to be so awful that neither party could swallow it, has not only taken effect, but will be extended to the point that it may  become exceedingly difficult to remove. Why are we stuck with this seemingly inevitable outcome? Because priorities, folks. Republicans have yet to offer a single piece of legislation to boost the economy and create jobs; it’s “cut, cut, cut” (whether spending or taxes) all day, every day. Even on the Democratic side, you have people touting this amazing deficit reduction, despite its costs. But that’s what matters to the very serious people. Just you nevermind those 1.6 million jobs this will cost.

By: Sandi Behrns

Sandi Behrns is a noted policy nerd, new media & web developer, and consultant to progressive organizations and campaigns. She is a senior contributor to Liberaland, and the Executive Editor of Progressive Congress News.