Newt Gingrich Can’t Win; Yes He Can; Well Maybe

by Stuart Shapiro

While Newt Gingrich’s victory on Saturday was not a huge surprise, its magnitude was.  And of course, the punditocracy is busy interpreting it.  On one side, Josh Marhsall:

Let me take a stab at one. Newt Gingrich isn’t going to be the GOP nominee. I’m not saying Romney will be, though I think it’s still very likely. You can never say never in politics. But I think the anchor point for understanding where we are right now is that the institutional GOP, the establishment Republican party, won’t let Newt get the nomination.

Look at these numbers: nationwide Newt Gingrich’s favorability number is 26.5%, unfavorable 58.6%.

And on the other side (but not too far on the other side), Nate Silver:

My view is that Mr. Gingrich’s win in South Carolina alone is not enough to be paradigm-breaking. But if he follows it with a win in Florida, all bets are off. Not only would that represent further evidence of Mr. Gingrich’s strength, it would suggest that we had been weighing the evidence incorrectly all along.:

I’m with Marshall on this one.  I think the Speaker is going to see a barrage of negative advertising unlike anything he has ever seen, and it will dent him in Florida and cripple him soon afterwards.  But while I think Marshall is right, I’m sure hoping (as an Obama supporter) that Silver is.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.