Palmetto State Predictions

by Stuart Shapiro

Speaker Gingrich has had such an impressive surge in South Carolina (Silver has him at 87% to win), that it is foolhardy to pick against him at this point.  And I’m no fool (hold your fire).

• Gingrich 35%  Romney 29% Santorum 20% Paul 15%

• Gingrich again calls on Santorum to drop out of the race before Florida.  Santorum fairly refuses (after all he will have won as many states at Gingrich) but will drop out after a poor showing in Florida.

• Romney is widely cited as the big loser tonight (as the media again pretends that Paul does not exist).  However, two months ago if you had told anyone that Romney would win New Hampshire and come in second in Iowa and South Carolina, they would have said he had a great January.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.