What Will Happen In Iowa

by Stuart Shapiro

Nate Silver, best political forecaster in the business, has his first model available.  As you can see from the chart here, the race is still very fluid as three candidates have at least a 10% chance of winning and the range of possible outcomes for each candidate (the 95% confidence interval for stat geeks) is pretty wide.

My pick is still Ron Paul and if the outcome looks something like the above, I think we will be bidding farewell to Bachmann and Santorum after the caucuses.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.