Good News For The Senate–Unless Your Name Is Feingold

by Stuart Shapiro

The trends in Senate polling are positive for Democrats. Nate Silver has reduced the chances of Republican takeover to 18% with the most likely outcome being 52 seats in Democratic control.  This includes positive trends in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, and West Virginia.

Control of the Senate, however, will boil down to a relatively small number of races — possibly not more than a half-dozen. And in several of those races, Democrats have made small, but important, gains.

While Democrats may not win all of these, they only need one to avoid a 50-50 scenario where Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson decide the majority.  And I think they will hold on to at least 3 of these seats (Nevada, Colorado, and Illinois).  Unfortunately, things are not looking good in Wisconsin.

One high-profile race, Wisconsin, does show a Republican trend this week. Nonpartisan polls of the state are unusually consistent, giving the Republican, Ron Johnson, a roughly 8-point lead over the Democratic incumbent, Russ Feingold. The polls also show that there are few undecided voters remaining in the state — and most of those surveys show Mr. Johnson with more than 50 percent of the vote.

Feingold has a history of pulling out tight races but this is a steep hill to climb.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.