Governors’ Races: Reason For Optimism

by Stuart Shapiro

With only three weeks to election day, I will probably post more “horse race” stuff for a few weeks because it is finally relevant.  Of course, much of this will come from the inimitable Nate Silver who has (in my view) the best forecasting model in the country.  Today Nate gives Democrats modest reason for hope in the gubernatorial races.

In recent weeks, Democrats have moved into the lead in the gubernatorial race in California, while closing their deficits in other states where they once trailed badly. Likewise, while there were relatively few shifts in this week’s gubernatorial polls, the exceptions generally benefited Democrats.

Let’s be perfectly clear: The GOP is going to have a good night in state houses.  But if Democrats can hold on in California and win a very winnable race in Florida (where the trend line is also decent for them), they will emerge from November 2 with the governor’s mansion in three of the four largest states (New York will be an easy win and Texas a disappointing loss).  With Republicans poised to sweep or nearly sweep the industrial midwest (I think they will take PA, MI, WI, and IA with tight races in OH and IL) this will take a bit of the sting out of a difficult night.

By: Stuart Shapiro

Stuart is a professor and the Director of the Public Policy
program at the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers
University. He teaches economics and cost-benefit analysis and studies
regulation in the United States at both the federal and state levels.
Prior to coming to Rutgers, Stuart worked for five years at the Office
of Management and Budget in Washington under Presidents Clinton and
George W. Bush.